How the 2026 Iran War Is Affecting the Global Flower Trade

Here is the guide with citations removed:

A Fragile, Time-Critical Industry

The global cut flower trade is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. Cut flowers need to reach customers soon after harvesting — often on sale in a shop within 24–48 hours of being picked. This makes air freight not just convenient but essential, and any disruption to aviation corridors can be catastrophic for growers operating on razor-thin margins.

The global flower trade has undergone a major transformation over the past two decades, with Kenya and Ethiopia emerging as dominant forces. Kenya's market share has surged from 8.6% in 2003 to 16.1% in 2024, while Ethiopia has established itself with a 5.5% stake. These African nations now rely heavily on Gulf aviation hubs to get their product to European, Asian, and Middle Eastern consumers — which is exactly where the crisis is biting hardest.

The Conflict and Its Immediate Trigger

The 2026 Iran war began on 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and numerous other Iranian officials. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and US-allied countries in the region.

The fallout was swift. By 12 March, the UKMTO had received reports of 16 attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf since the start of hostilities, and airspace across the region became severely restricted — cutting off critical cargo routes that the flower industry depends upon.

The Gulf Hub Problem: Kenya's Exposed Supply Chain

The most direct impact on the flower trade has been felt in East Africa, particularly Kenya.

For Kenya's horticulture sector, the Middle East is a critical transit and destination hub. Major Gulf airports serve as key cargo gateways for flowers, fruits and vegetables headed to Europe and Asia. Any closure of airspace or restrictions on flight paths could disrupt cargo schedules, reduce freight capacity, and push up costs for exporters already operating on thin margins.

Five Gulf countries accounted for 13.35% of Kenya's cut flower export value, totalling $722.9 million. Kenya Flower Council CEO Clement Tulezi has been candid about the risks: prolonged airspace restrictions could significantly affect cargo capacity for perishable exports, with Gulf carriers playing a central role in ferrying perishables to Europe.

This is not merely a destination problem — it's a routing problem. Even flowers bound for the UK or the Netherlands often transit through Dubai or Doha. When those corridors become unreliable, the entire logistics chain is disrupted.

The Fertiliser Crisis: A Slower but Deeper Wound

Beyond air freight, the war is threatening the very inputs needed to grow flowers in the first place.

Fertiliser markets have responded rapidly to the escalation. Within the first week, the average free on board (FOB) price of urea increased by about 37% as traders reacted to supply uncertainty. By the second week, prices had climbed further to around $715 per metric ton, representing an increase of about 45% compared to pre-escalation levels.

Agriculture may face particular pressure if the conflict disrupts fertiliser production or trade, with the timing proving especially sensitive because the current planting season is underway in many parts of the world. Flower farming is fertiliser-intensive, and countries are already facing an impact on global fertilisers, with most supplies coming from Gulf countries.

For flower farms in Kenya and Ethiopia — which rely heavily on imported fertilisers — rising input costs threaten profitability across the entire season.

The Netherlands: The Trading Hub Feels the Pressure

The Netherlands remains the world's dominant flower trading nation, and it too is exposed. The Netherlands is far and away the largest importer of African cut flowers, accounting for 80% of Ethiopian exports and 46% of Kenyan exports.

If shipments from East Africa are delayed, rerouted, or cancelled, Dutch auction houses face reduced supply and increased prices. European florists and supermarkets buying through Dutch wholesalers are already seeing the downstream effects, with freight costs rising sharply as airlines reroute cargo around the conflict zone.

The Middle East as a Destination Market

The Gulf region is not only a transit point — it is also a significant consumer of cut flowers in its own right. Kenya exports significant volumes of flowers and fresh produce to markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. With the ongoing conflict having caused mass disruption to civilian life in the Gulf — including a significant exodus of foreign residents — consumer demand in those markets has fallen sharply, adding another layer of revenue loss for exporters.

Fuel Costs: Squeezing Every Link in the Chain

Rising oil prices ripple through the flower trade at every level — from the fuel used on farms to power irrigation and refrigeration, to the cost of the aircraft carrying flowers to market.

Brent crude oil prices jumped about 15% in the opening days of the conflict, then surged to $120 a barrel as the war deepened and the market began pricing in the risk of sustained disruption. Higher jet fuel costs are being passed on by airlines, making air freight more expensive at a moment when exporters can least afford it.

The WTO has warned that growth in world trade in goods will slow markedly to 1.9% this year, from 4.6% in 2025, with further downside risk if the conflict continues to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport.

Looking Ahead: Diversification as a Strategy

The crisis is accelerating trends that were already underway. During the COVID-19 pandemic, growers in Kenya realised how vulnerable the industry was by relying on a single logistics route through the Netherlands. As a result, Kenya's flower sector — along with Ethiopia's — had been actively developing new export channels to spread risk across multiple countries. The Iran war is now stress-testing those diversification efforts in real time.

For consumers in the UK, Europe, and beyond, the near-term consequence is likely to be higher prices and reduced variety at the florist, particularly for roses — the dominant product of East African flower farms. Whether the industry can adapt quickly enough depends heavily on how long the conflict continues and whether alternative cargo routes can be established at scale.